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Egypt delivered its first military aid to Somalia in over 40 years on Tuesday, according to three diplomatic and Somali government sources. The move is expected to heighten tensions with Ethiopia, as relations between Egypt and Somalia have grown closer following Ethiopia’s recent agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland.
Earlier this year, Ethiopia signed a preliminary deal with Somaliland to lease coastal land in exchange for the potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence from Somalia, a move that has sparked outrage in Mogadishu. The Somali government called the agreement an assault on its sovereignty and vowed to oppose it by all means necessary. Egypt, which has long been at odds with Ethiopia over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River, also condemned the Somaliland deal. This month, Egypt signed a security pact with Somalia and offered to send troops to a new peacekeeping mission in the country.
Two Egyptian military planes landed at Mogadishu’s airport on Tuesday morning, carrying weapons and ammunition, as confirmed by two diplomats and a senior Somali official who spoke on condition of anonymity. A video of the planes on the airport tarmac circulated on social media and was verified by Reuters. One diplomat warned that Somalia was “playing with fire” by importing Egyptian arms and antagonizing Ethiopia.
The Somali and Egyptian foreign ministries have yet to comment on the situation. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s foreign ministry issued a statement saying it could not “stand idle while other actors are taking measures to destabilize the region,” referring to its ongoing efforts to maintain peace and security in Somalia and the region, including attempts to resolve disputes with Mogadishu. The statement accused Somalia of “colluding with external actors” but did not directly mention Egypt or the arms delivery.
The delivery of military aid by Egypt comes amid rising tensions in the region. Somalia had previously threatened to expel up to 10,000 Ethiopian troops, who are part of a peacekeeping mission and bilateral agreements to combat al Shabaab militants if the Somaliland deal was not rescinded. Egypt’s offer to send troops for a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia was included in an African Union communiqué earlier this month, though Cairo has yet to make a public statement.
Rashid Abdi, an analyst with the Sahan Research think-tank, noted that while the chances of a direct conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia remain low, a proxy war in the region is possible. “If the Egyptians deploy troops along the border with Ethiopia, it could bring the two into direct confrontation,” Abdi said.
Turkey has been mediating indirect talks between Somalia and Ethiopia over the Somaliland issue, with two rounds already held since July and a third round expected next month. Ethiopia, a landlocked country, argues that it needs access to the sea, while Mogadishu insists that Somaliland, despite its de facto autonomy for more than three decades, remains part of Somalia.
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