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Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed landed in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, Thursday for a crucial meeting with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, as the two leaders sought to ease months of diplomatic tensions over Ethiopia’s controversial deal with Somaliland. The visit, seen as a potential turning point in the strained relations between the neighboring nations, came amid high-security concerns, with at least one mortar shell striking near Mogadishu’s airport just moments before Abiy’s arrival.
Relations between Ethiopia and Somalia took a dramatic turn in January 2024 when Ethiopia signed a controversial agreement with Somaliland, the self-declared breakaway region of Somalia. Under the deal, Ethiopia secured access to a stretch of Somaliland’s coastline, where it planned to build a naval base and a commercial port. In return, Ethiopia hinted at a possible recognition of Somaliland’s independence—an explosive move that Somalia viewed as a direct threat to its sovereignty.
Mogadishu reacted furiously, accusing Addis Ababa of violating international law and undermining Somalia’s territorial integrity. The Somali government swiftly moved to counter Ethiopia’s actions by bolstering its diplomatic and military ties with Ethiopia’s regional rivals, Egypt and Eritrea—two countries with longstanding tensions with Addis Ababa. Somalia also threatened to expel Ethiopian peacekeeping forces deployed in the country under an African Union mission, further escalating the standoff.
Against this backdrop of diplomatic hostility, Abiy’s visit to Mogadishu carried significant weight. However, it also underscored the volatile security situation in Somalia. Just before his plane touched down at Aden Adde International Airport, at least one mortar shell landed near the heavily fortified airport complex, despite security forces having closed off roads and implemented strict measures to secure the area. While there were no immediate reports of casualties, the attack served as a reminder of the persistent threat posed by the Al-Shabaab militant group, which has waged a relentless insurgency against Somalia’s government for over a decade.
Despite the tension, the Ethiopian leader was welcomed with a ceremonial reception. Photos released by the Somali presidency showed Abiy and Mohamud exchanging smiles and a firm handshake on the airport tarmac, surrounded by officials and citizens waving the flags of both nations. The meeting, held behind closed doors, was expected to focus on de-escalating the diplomatic row and finding a compromise on Ethiopia’s access to the sea.
The visit followed a series of diplomatic engagements between the two nations, including a meeting in December 2023, mediated by Turkey, where both sides agreed to resolve their dispute through negotiations. During those talks, Somalia and Ethiopia pledged to work toward a commercial arrangement that would provide landlocked Ethiopia with “reliable, secure, and sustainable access to and from the sea” while respecting Somalia’s territorial integrity. As part of this commitment, both governments had agreed to begin technical negotiations by the end of February.
In a joint statement issued after Thursday’s meeting, Abiy and Mohamud reaffirmed their commitment to diplomatic engagement and regional cooperation. “The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening cooperation for mutual benefit,” the statement read, signaling a cautious but necessary step toward rebuilding trust.
The tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia have far-reaching implications beyond their borders. Ethiopia, the second-most populous country in Africa, has long struggled with its landlocked status since losing access to the Red Sea after Eritrea’s independence in 1993. The country has since relied on ports in Djibouti for most of its imports and exports, but Abiy has been actively seeking alternative routes to reduce dependency on Djibouti. The deal with Somaliland was part of this broader strategy.
For Somalia, however, the recognition of Somaliland’s independence by any country, let alone Ethiopia, poses an existential threat to its territorial unity. Somaliland has functioned as a de facto independent state since 1991 but remains internationally recognized as part of Somalia. Any move that legitimizes its independence could embolden other separatist movements within Somalia and across Africa.
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